was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/ For Nassim Nicholas. Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world . The Roots of Unfairness: the Black. Swan in Arts and Literature. Nassim Nicholas Taleb1. 2nd. Draft, November Literary Reseach/Recherche Litteraire. PDF | On Feb 1, , Gene Callahan and others published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable.
|Language:||English, Spanish, Indonesian|
|Distribution:||Free* [*Sign up for free]|
"Black swans" are highly consequential but unlikely events that are easily explainable – but only in by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Copyright © Nassim . Nassim Taleb is a famous essayist who spent two decades as a trader before he Taleb asserts how the Black Swan events explain many things that take place. NOTICES OF THE AMS. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly. Improbable. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Random House, US$
What is a Black Swan? Is it something positive, or a mere reflection of the bad things that occur? Do you ask yourself these questions as you are reading this? Written and designed for all audiences especially for enthusiasts that are restless and hungry for new knowledge that opposes the traditional way of predicting, forecasting, analyzing, calculating and estimating different events that happened or may happen in the future.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb was born in in Amioun, Lebanon. He is an American-Lebanese essayist, philosopher researcher, trader, and financier who works and dwells in the US. As a polyglot Taleb fluently speaks five languages: You know that you should read the book and you know who the author is. To understand Black Swan, first, you must comprehend certain critics and opinions by philosophers, experts, and writers in different fields.
Thinking is a relative concept that is based on uncertainty and possibilities. Now we get to define the term. Black swans are labeled as an unfortunate turn of events, which are not only explainable but understandable as well.
Anyway, you have to show flexibility and open-mindset to accept such dose of uncertainty without falling into despair. Over the course of thousands of years, the symbolic meaning of Black Swans has swept the world. It changes history, literature, business climate, science, economy and everything the sun touches. Connecting with each other is becoming a straightforward mechanism, now more than ever. The Bell Curve is one of the few statistical-forecasting factors, which turn a blind eye to the effects deriving from black swans.
These tools are casting doubt on randomness, and refuse to acknowledge its realistic waves. They also provide future predictions and precise explanations as worst as possible.
Even a movie starring Natalie Portman is set to give you a hint on the future while recalling memories and memorable events. It was not possible to predict that the Black Swan existed before it was first seen. Rare events like the first Black Swan occur more often than we imagine and our minds are programmed to deal with what we have seen before. However, extreme events usually occur and have significant impacts.
Our tendency to ignore them comes from the fact that people tend to underestimate their ignorance. There is much that we do not know, but since feeling ignorant is something that does not make us feel good about ourselves, we tend to downplay this characteristic of ours. We create stories where they do not exist. Human knowledge is constantly growing and evolving, and the dogmatic approach we tend to take makes no sense. We cannot be sure of our beliefs, for they make us blind to concepts that are outside what we believe to be true.
Black swans are the events that cause vast cognitive transformations, whether minor or enormous, such as the destruction of a sector in the stock market or a political crisis. The only way to be aware of these impacts is information. The more ignorant you are, the more likely you are to be surprised by a swan. The more informed you are, the less likely you will be hit.
A Black Swan can transform the whole modern understanding of science, impacting philosophy, theology, and physics. In the 15th century, when Nicolaus Copernicus proposed that the earth was not the center of the universe, the consequences were immense, at all levels. He challenged religion yes, the Catholic church suffered major impacts , but also paved the way for a cultural change in society and science. To better understand the impact of the unlikely, Nassim Taleb divides human knowledge into two main areas of randomness, separating the two major groups of unlikely effects in our lives.
By dividing the improbable into two large groups, it becomes easier to understand how it deceives us and thus proves our inability to make predictions. The first of them is called by Taleb of Mediochristian, describing a land where averages are the rule.
In Mediochristian our sampling of information and data available is very large, and no single fact will change the way the model works. The data in this context is not scalable, as it has defined a minimum and a maximum limit.
Examples of Mediochristian information are, for example, physical characteristics such as height and body weight, and even IQ. Since the properties of such non-scalable information are certainly limited, it is possible to make relatively accurate predictions about the means.
In Extremistan, the information is so disproportionate that a single observation can dramatically impact our observations and mislead our ability to make predictions.
Examples of data and information emerging from the Far East are far more diverse. Examples include: Deaths in terrorist attacks, book sales by an author, inflation rates. Other than data such as height and weight, wealth distribution and album sales are scalable items. For example, you can sell your book in digital format through Kindle infinitely, because the digital format does not require you to print a book with each copy sold. Another example is wealth, which is highly scalable: And if you analyze the data looking at the average, you can be deceived with a representation of the income distribution that does not accurately reflect the reality of people.
Be careful not to be turkey on Thanksgiving Day… Imagine the following scenario. You are a turkey, which is fed daily, well taken care of every day, for years and your life is going ok.
But on Thanksgiving, a surprise occurs. You are not fed, you are murdered and eaten by the people who feed you. That is the metaphor that Taleb uses to illustrate how to observe the past to predict the future. It also proves that the Black Swans are relative. For you the turkey , the Thanksgiving dinner is definitely a Black Swan, but for the Thanksgiving dinner cook, there is no surprise in this event.
We often look at our lives as if things were happening in the Mediochristian, when, in fact, life occurs much more in the kingdom of Extremistan.
To learn to deal with this, one must accept, embrace and understand the unpredictable nature of the world, rather than ignore it. That will not make you not be the turkey, but at least it will allow you not to get accustomed to the status quo. Our brains play tricks on us.
We tend to conclude that similar sounding phrases have absurdly different meanings.
The lack of proof that something exists does not mean that it does not exist. It is not because there has never been an earthquake in your city, that it will never occur, will it? But given our ignorance, to seek evidence that what we believe is real can greatly limit our line of thought and make us ignore information that does not support our beliefs.
It is often more valuable to search for facts that go against our beliefs than those which support it. That leads to much more powerful discoveries and allows us not to be blinded. Another flaw in our operating system is that we are in the habit of creating stories based on collections of events that occur in our lives.
The author calls this failure a narrative fallacy. It is characterized by exploiting our limited ability to analyze sequences of events without adding an explanation to them. Explanations tie the facts and make them easier to remember, but our brains always seek to tell a story where events are correlated and meaningful. However, by condensing facts into a single narrative, we end up generating a loss of information and have a great tendency to oversimplify things.
We discard the data that makes no sense in our history, and that leaves us at the mercy of the swans. According to cognitive psychologists, we have two kinds of thoughts. Type 1 thinking is instinctive, fast, immediate, and based on your experience with the world. This system is advantageous for having high speed and helps you react quickly to external stimuli but is also very prone to errors. System 2, on the other hand, is slow, rational and self-aware, much more useful in the classroom not at a time of quick thinking between life and death.
Summary[ edit ] Taleb has referred to the book as an essay or a narrative with one single idea: "our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology.
Taleb addresses science and business in the latter half of Part Two and Part Three. Part Four contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life.
Taleb acknowledges a contradiction in the book. He uses an exact metaphor, the Black Swan idea to argue against the "unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain—white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti.
You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent alas than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect.
Taleb argues this is due to The Triplet of Opacity.
She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Yevgenia became famous. This incident is described as a Black Swan event. The book goes on to admit that the so-called author is a work of fiction. Yevgenia rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction. She also hates the very idea of forcing things into well defined "categories", holding that the world generally is complex and not easy to define.
Though female, the character is based, in part, autobiographically on the author according to Taleb , who has many of the same traits. The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. He uses them as guides to define how predictable the environment one's studying is.